Thursday, March 10, 2011

Previewing the ACC Tournament

The ACC Tournament isn't what it used to be.  Roy Williams is often quoted for saying this or for calling it a "cocktail party" or whatever else the media can manufacture to get a story leading up to this event.  But he's right, you know.  There's a lot of nostalgia associated with this tournament, as the first postseason tourney of any kind.  The stories of the legendary NC State/Maryland/UNC battles from the 70's are what makes this tournament so historically special.  But, let's face it, at this point it's mostly historical.  Even in the 90's, as a kid growing up in Raleigh, I remember loving quarterfinal Friday, when each of the Big Four was in action and we all wore our school colors and the cool teachers wheeled in the old school TV into the room to watch the noon game.

But this tournament isn't that special anymore.  It's still fun, no doubt, and it's still the final chance for bragging rights against local rivals.  But with ACC expansion leading to the awkward 4-game "opening night," quarterfinal Friday has lost some of its luster, with four teams already eliminated by that time.  It just isn't much fun to wear your Wake shirt to school if they've already lost.  Add to that the incredible popularity of the NCAA Tournament, and nobody remembers who wins this thing anymore.  They just don't.  It matters who wins the ACC regular season (a little), and it matters how you do in the NCAAT (a lot).  That's it.

That said, it's still a great chance to watch basketball for 3 days straight and it's still a great appetizer to the NCAAs which begin next week.  So without further delay to bash the thing, let's get to my picks:

Awkward Opening Round:
UVa over Miami
BC over Wake Forest
NC State over Maryland
Georgia Tech over Virginia Tech

Why: I just like Tony Bennett a lot and not just because he shares his name with a lounge singer.  His Cavs have not quit all season and quietly finished 7-9 and 8th in the ACC despite a talent void left by Dave Leitao and losing their best player to injury in December.  A lot of people are looking at Maryland as a potential dark horse, but watching them play last week it just looks to me like they've quit.  Sure, they should have motivation now with a NCAA bid maybe on the table, but it's just hard to turn that switch back on.  As for the last game, I really see Georgia Tech giving the Hokies a great game in this one, and I went with the upset because I just have a feeling that Greenberg is destined to be whining on Selection Sunday again.  More of a hunch than a legitimate pick.

Quarterfinals:
UNC over UVa
BC over Clemson
Duke over NC State
FSU over Georgia Tech

Why: UVa gave the Heels a game back in January, but this is a VERY different UNC team now.  I really like the job Brad Brownell has done, and the BC-Clemson game is really a 50-50 toss-up.  I went with the Eagles because I like their talent better, especially Reggie Jackson.  NC State finally ends Sidney Lowe's Reign of Terror.  Georgia Tech is good enough to beat Seth Greenberg but not a legitimate team.

Semifinals:
UNC over BC
Duke over FSU

Why: Duke and UNC have not met in the ACC Tournament since 2003, despite the fact that they've won every one combined since then except for 2004 (Maryland).  I see it happening this year, because these two teams are just so much better than the rest of the league.  If Chris Singleton plays and plays well, I can definitely see the 'Noles pulling the upset because of their length and athleticism on defense and ability to bother shooters, but I just don't see Singleton being effective this close to breaking his foot.  Likewise, BC definitely CAN beat UNC if Reggie Jackson goes off but I think the Heels are just better and would beat them on a neutral court 70% of the time.

Finals:
UNC over Duke

Why: I love the talking point that Roy doesn't care about this tournament.  First of all, the only time his UNC team has really failed expectations were in 2005 and 2009 when they failed to reach the finals as a 1 seed.  But in '09 they were playing without their starting PG and ACC POY Ty Lawson.  They've also won the thing twice since Roy has been there.  Second of all, the thought that somehow Roy doesn't coach as well or doesn't try for ANY game that his team plays is ridiculous.  The mark of a true professional as a coach is someone who prepares at the same high level for each game.  You can bet Roy does that.

Now that's off the table.  Duke and UNC are very close and this is probably a 50-50 game on a neutral floor.  But it's hard for me to get that wire-to-wire, dominant UNC victory I just watched last weekend out of my head.  I think that Duke has a difficult matchup with this UNC team, as the Heels' frontline is so good defensively that it makes the Devils even more reliant on the 3-pointer.  Add to that the fact that Harrison Barnes has purchased significant real estate inside Kyle Singler's head, and I like Heels by a hair in this one.

Monday, March 7, 2011

All-ACC Awards

The ACC regular season awards were handed out today, and 4 Tar Heels in all were honored.  Of course the major news from this from a UNC perspective is going to be that no UNC players were named to the first team, despite their team going 14-2 in conference play and winning 7 in a row to win the regular season title outright.  However, I don't know that I really see this as that great of a slight.  Due to the Heels' great balance, John Henson, Tyler Zeller, and Harrison Barnes probably split the "Carolina" vote, meaning that every person voting probably included 1 Tar Heel on his/her first team, but the balance was evenly spread such that no one player accumulated enough votes.  And looking at the results, with Zeller/Henson/Barnes coming in 6th/7th/8th, it's pretty clear that's what happened.

However, I will submit the following numbers to you.  These statistics are from conference games only, since after all these are all-conference awards.

Harrison Barnes: 15.9 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 43% FG, 32.5% 3-point
Kyle Singler: 15.8 ppg, 7.8 rpg, 39% FG, 29% 3-poin

Add to that the fact that Barnes was the best pure offensive weapone on the conference champions and that he absolutely SHUT DOWN Singler in both games they played against one another, and I think Barnes should be first-team above Singler.  Which is why I would vote that way, if given the opportunity. 

If given a vote, this is how I would have voted, with a short explanation on why.  As you will no doubt realize, I put a strong emphasis on how each player impacts his team's overall record.  Winners, in other words, get the benefit of the doubt:

First Team:
Harrison Barnes, UNC: see above
Kendall Marshall, UNC: the MVP of the conference champions. Numbers weren't great, though much improved once you account for increase in minutes.  Also anyone who watched Carolina knows he was the key.
Malcom Delaney, VT: His scoring numbers are too much to ignore
Reggie Jackson, BC: Deserves a ton of credit for getting the Eagles to where they were this season.  That team overachieved more than perhaps any other team in the conference and he was the major reason for it.
Nolan Smith, Duke: Again, his numbers are too good to ignore.  Also he was the clear leader and MVP for the second-place Devils, who were after all a top-5 team.

Second Team:
John Henson, UNC: Could make an argument for him over Barnes, but I went with the Falcon because he hit so many big shots which won the Heels games.  Probably a coin flip.
Tyler Zeller, UNC: Leadings scorer for the season for a top-10 team and conference champion.  Also the primary offensive threat after Barnes.  Second team is definitely warranted.
Kyle Singler, Duke: See above.  He's also underrated defensively and his field goal percentage would be higher if he didn't take ridiculously difficult shots.  He's still a great player.
Chris Singleton, FSU: Would easily have been First Team if he played the whole season, he led FSU in nearly every statistical category and was a big reason why they're one of only 3 ACC locks for the NCAA Tournament.
Jordan Williams, Maryland: His numbers probably warrant first-team consideration, but his team faded hard down the stretch and I'm a blatant Heels homer.

Third Team:
Demontez Stitt, Clemson: Similar to Jackson in that he was the motor behind a very surprising team.
Derwin Kitchen, FSU: This may be a reach but I just felt he was the reason FSU did not go away after Singleton got hurt, and he deserves credit.
Iman Shumpert, GT: The Jackets are so bad but Shumpert is too good to be left off completely.
Jeff Allen, VT: Averaged a double-double per game on a good team.
Joe Trapani, BC: I love what the Eagles did this year, and Trapani was the second reason for that.  Enough to get him the last spot.

All Freshman:
Marshall- that Travis McKie received more votes is so dumb I will waste no further space on it.
Barnes
Terrell Stoglin, Maryland: These last 3 guys get in by default.  Was the ACC's freshman class really this bad?
Travis McKie, Wake Forest
CJ Leslie, NC State

Player of the Year: Nolan Smith, Duke

Freshman of the Year: Marshall.  Again, MVP on the conference champions.  Barnes close second.

Defensive Player of the Year: John Henson.  Singleton is close, but Henson is so central to everything that
Carolina does defensively, and they're a top-5 defensive team.  It's not just about blocks; he allows for UNC's perimeter guys to put more pressure on the ball and overplay more, which is a very important part of what Williams and UNC like to do.  Without Henson to clean things up behind them, that's not as possible.

Coach of the Year: Ol' Roy.  Last year, Carolina was in the NIT and then they lost all 5 starters, including one in the middle of this season.  That he managed to get them to 14-2 is a great coaching job.  Anyone who tells you otherwise is holding him and Carolina to an astronomical standard because of the recruiting classes and expectations.  Coach K did a great job and deserves credit, but he returned 3 starters from a national championship team.  Brad Brownell also should get some consideration.

UNC 81, Duke 67

There are defining moments from the Duke-Carolina rivalry that those of us who are lucky enough to be a (small) part of it will always remember.  Jerry Stackhouse dunking over 14 feet of Duke post players.  Matt Doherty hitting The Shot.  Chris Duhon going length of the floor while David Noel sets a screen on Raymond Felton.  Tyler Hansbrough pulling up for 3 with 2 on the shot clock as a freshman in Cameron Indoor. 

And, unfortunately, Roy Williams looking depressed, frustrated, and everything in between following his Heels' 32-point beating at the hands of the Blue Devils 1 year ago.

Luckily, Dexter Strickland gave us another defining moment that helps to erase any memory of that last one.

First, let me just say that I am not going to do nearly as fine a job recounting that moment as Adam Lucas, and you should definitely read his piece after this (if you haven't already).

But that moment, and the completely uninhibited joy and celebration which followed it, perfectly defined what this season has been for UNC and all of us who call ourselves fans.  Up 13 with a minute to play, with the game in hand to everyone who has not lived through the brutal Year from Hell, watching Dexter Strickland drop the hammer on Miles Plumlee put all of that behind us.  That dunk perfectly summarized what was a surprisingly dominant wire-to-wire victory for a young team that just 6 weeks prior had taken a 78-58 beating at the hands of terrible Georgia Tech.

Those in the national media who mocked UNC fans for rushing the floor do not understand 1) the Duke-Carolina rivalry or 2) how much we love this team.  As I wrote in my pregame post, the Duke-UNC rivalry is so much about momentum and the swing of the pendulum.  Each program has used the success of the other in order to motivate its own team to achieve greater things.  Last year's Duke team is the perfect example of that.  And now, this year's UNC team just may be an example of that.  Don't believe me?  Take a look at what the winner of the Duke-UNC regular season finale has done since 2004 (when Ol' Roy came back to Chapel Hill):

2004: Final Four
2005: National Championship
2006: 2nd round
2007: Elite Eight
2008: Final Four
2009: National Championship
2010: National Championship

Wow.  I have always stated that the single greatest thing about the Duke-UNC rivalry is that it makes each program greater.  And on Saturday night, after 23 months of having that proven to us on the wrong shade of blue, we learned it again.  And in the middle we did it by absolutely dominating a bitter rival on our home floor after 23 months of frustration.  So excuse us if we rush the floor to celebrate.  Hopefully now the Heels can back up that impressive run shown above.

The other thing that outsiders do not understand is the attachment we have all grown for this team.  These guys clearly love playing with each other and are obviously having a fantastic time putting on the Carolina Blue every week.  As an alum of the same school they are so happy to represent, that makes me like them and cheer for them even harder.  Nowhere was the special attachment between fans and this team shown more strongly than on the face of Kendall Marshall after the game was over and the stands were emptying.  There was Marshall, raising his arms in the air, bouncing up and down, and smiling.  Afterward in the press conference and then again on his Twitter account, Marshall emphasized how proud he was to see how happy the fans were as they rushed the floor.  And that's a perfect response, because everywhere in Chapel Hill on Saturday night were fans who were so happy with what they had just watched.  So excuse us if we tried to let the players in on it.

I don't know when the high will end from this game, but I do know that this season more than any highlights the need to enjoy the ride with each basketball season.  Carolina may not be the last team standing in Reliant Stadium in a month, but I daresay no one will have enjoyed this season as much as Carolina fans.  And if this post seems a bit overly rosy and optimistic, that's good.  It was just that kind of weekend.

Friday, March 4, 2011

UNC vs Duke

I know that this game already gets enough media hype as it is, and it certainly gets enough hype among UNC and Duke fans as well.  But this particular version of the rivarly has a little extra behind it, just as last year's matchup in Cameron did.  And we all know how that went.

I've always thought one of the most amazing parts of the Duke-Carolina rivalry was the constant swing of the pendulum throughout the history of the rivalry.  The Blue Devils and Tar Heels have consistently used each other almost as motivation throughout the last 30 years or so, feeding off the other's success to get back to the same level.  Twice in the past 20 years UNC and Duke have won national championships after the other (the Heels in '93 and Devils last season) and each time marked a clear turning point in the rivarly.  The rivalry has gone through ebbs and flows, with several distinct periods where one side dominated.  UNC had the upper hand throughout Dean Smith's last years, including of course most memorably the Year that K Expunged From All Humanity (1995), only to see Duke take the early 2000's.  Then Marvin Williams gave the Heels the beginning in another fine stretch punctuated by Tyler Hansbrough and his inability to lose at Cameron Indoor.  And then of course last year Duke laid a 30 point beatdown to close the season and clearly swing the pendulum back the other way.  Duke is dominating the rivalry right now, and you can bet that every person in baby blue tomorrow knows that.  And hates it.

That's why tomorrow night's game is as big a regular season game as UNC has played since that Marvin Williams putback in 2005.  Following last year's debacle, Carolina has somewhat slowly worked its way back into the national conversation, but it would take a season split with Duke to prove to the country as well as 15-501 that the Heels have put 2009-10 clearly behind them.  That this game is also for an ACC regular season championship in a year when Duke was awarded that trophy in late November only further underscores the point above.  Just one month ago Carolina looked like they could make that statement a little early as they went up by 16 on the road against top-ranked Duke.  Although they wound up losing, the national media and UNC fans alike sang a similar chorus in the days afterward: "just wait til UNC gets them in Chapel Hill."  Now is that chance.

As for what might actually happen tomorrow, I really don't know.  I always love preview posts where analysts give "keys to the game" or whatever.  Don't turn the ball over, make 3 points shots, work the paint, run the football, etc.  So I will shy away from giving you the same kind of tired analysis.  Going into the first meeting, I really felt Carolina was going to win because they came in with incredible momentum having played 4 of the best halves of basketball they've played all season (and about to play a 5th).  And for 20 minutes I looked quite intelligent for that pick.  This time around, I just don't feel that same way.  I think the Heels' confidence has waned maybe a little bit as their offense has stagnated.  At the same time, there is something to be said for a young team learning to get tough wins, and there is NO doubt that UNC has learned that skill.

I do know that the first time around I underestimated the effect that Cameron had on the outcome of the game, probably because (except obviously last year) UNC has had such great success there recently, and that's what I remember.  This time, I will not make the same mistake, especially since Duke is 2-3 on the road against the RPI top 100 and has lost its 3 toughest road games of the season.  Also, I have been saying from the beginning of the season that UNC would surprise everyone by splitting the season series with Duke.  I'll stick with that pick here.
UNC 81, Duke 75.

Thursday, March 3, 2011

UNC 72, Florida State 70

The Black Falcon.

That's really all you can say about this game.  I could spend some time talking about how UNC once again showed their youth and inexperience in failing to put a team away when they built a 6-7 point lead with under 4 minutes to go.  Or I could spend some time talking about how the usually defensively strong Heels gave up 48% shooting to a terrible offensive team playing without its leading scorer.  Or I could spend some time talking about how UNC went on the road against a team that was 7-0 at home in ACC play and desperate for a 2nd signature win on Senior Night and came out with a gutsy 2-point victory.  Or that John Henson beat back the ridiculous physicality of this game and answered some serious questions about his strength with a 19-point, 12-rebound performance.

But none of those things matter all that much, because in 2 years I won't remember any of those things.  In 2 years, I will remember this game however.  I will remember watching the team in the timeout huddle with 11 seconds left with Harrison Barnes CLEARLY demanding the ball to Roy Williams, and Williams responding by pointing at him, confirming with a head nod, then immediately going to the clipboard (seriously, if you have DVR go back and look at this- it's quite striking).  Then the Heels running a clear-out play for their freshman on the road in a game to put his team in the driver's seat for a conference championship.  If you have DVR also go back and watch when Dan Schulman exclaims "They're running a clear-out for the freshman!"  I got chills when he said that. 

And of course I will remember Harrison Barnes hitting a cold-blooded jump shot with a hand in his face as though he was playing pickup in his back yard.  The guy is absurd.  It's difficult to forecast exactly what the postseason expectations for this team should be, but with Barnes the Heels have a puncher's chance against any team in the country because he's always a threat to hit the big shot. 

I can't wait for Saturday, can't wait for the ACC Tournament, and certainly can't wait for the Dance.  Watching the Falcon take us through March is going to be one heck of a ride.

Tuesday, March 1, 2011

Reggie Bullock Out for the Year

Rumors had begun to swirl that the Kinston native's recent shooting slump may have been due to injury, and now it seems that this has been substantiated.  UNC has confirmed that Bullock has a torn lateral meniscus and will miss the remainder of this season.

While this is undoubtedly a blow for Bullock himself, a self-proclaimed lifelong Tar Heel fan who now will miss his first March wearing the baby blue, I don't know how much it will matter for the team as a whole.  While this team continues to struggle with a consistent outside shot, a very significant part of those struggles have been Reggie's prolonged slump.  Outside of a nice 3-point play over Scott Wood and several run-out hustle plays, Bullock has done very little since the first half against Boston College roughly a month ago.  And I don't know that I personally ever expected him to do much more this year.  His injury opens up playing time for Leslie McDonald, who has looked better in recent games against NC State and Maryland and has a more versatile offensive game at this point in their respective careers.  Although it is always difficult to lose an important member of the rotation this late in the season, I don't think it will necessarily lower the Heels' ceiling in any way.  Some combination of McDonald and Justin Watts will be able to step up and fill the void in minutes. 

Elsewhere in college basketball on this first day of March:

- BC jumped all over hungover Virginia Tech, in a result that should surprise absolutely no one save Dicky V, who already has the Hokies in his bracket.  As an ACC fan, it's important for the conference in this mediocre season to get at least four teams into the Dance, especially given the relative "softness" of the bubble this year.  For that to happen, it would be nice if Tech could pull out this victory to prevent a possible must-win in Littlejohn on Saturday.

- Purdue is putting together a quiet run toward a darkhorse number 1 seed by beating Illinois by 8.  At the same time, they continued the Illini's run from preseason darling to postseason dissapointment.  Bruce Weber had a lot of success early on with Illinois using momentum inherited from Bill Self, but he has to feel his seat getting much warmer in Champaign after failing to live up to expectations this year.

- Florida just does not look like a top-15 team to me when I watch them play, particularly on offense.  But they just keep winning through a solid SEC schedule, pounding Alabama by 20+ at home tonight.

- NC State drops its 10th ACC game of the season for the 5th consecutive season (or 100% of Sidney Lowe's career) by losing by 9 on the road to UVa.  The Wolfpack continue to sit squarely on the NIT bubble and will likely need to win at least 2 more games to be in.

Sidney Lowe Thinks Scott Wood Gets Held A Lot

From the Charlotte Observer this morning.

The first part of the article is much more important, as it explains the scenarios to determine the number 1 seed for the ACC Tournament.  Quite simply, because of the tiebreaker scenario, whichever team wins the Duke-UNC game next Saturday will be the ACC's number 1 seed, no matter what happens tomorrow night for either team.  Just in case you thought that game didn't matter at all.

But there's a little footnote at the bottom where Sidney Lowe is asked why 3-point specialist Scott Wood can't seem to string two consecutive games together.

"I know he's my player, and I might be a little biased, but I think the film doesn't lie, he gets held more than anybody I've ever seen," Lowe said. "They just literally grab him, grab his jersey and hold him."

Really?  Please.  Sidney Lowe's whining about the refs is getting a little tired.  It was bad enough to go around talking about how "confused" he was after the UNC game last Wednesday (despite the fact that his gameplan clearly included being as physical as possible with the Heels- I guess he was expecting that Tracy Smith should not get the same treatment at the other end), but now he's just blatantly blaming the fact that Wood is inconsistent on missed holding calls. 

Stop it.