Thursday, March 17, 2011

NCAAT: West Region

The Top Four: Tuesday Duke became maybe the most intriguing team in the field as K discussed the possibility of Kyrie Irving coming back.  The Blue Devils have been one of the best teams in the country on both ends of the floor (top 10 nationally in both offensive and defensive efficiency) and the consensus is that the number 1 overall pick can only make them better.  However, it's not nearly that cut and dry- just ask the 1984 Tar Heels, which returned their freshman point guard Kenny Smith from injury before the Tournament only to flame out in the Sweet Sixteen despite having both Michael Jordan and Sam Perkins on that team.  Anyways, no one knows how effective Irving will be but it is something to keep an eye on.  San Diego State is a team I just don't know that much about; their record is incredible and they're very good on paper, but it's difficult to know how they will respond to playing consistently better competition than they get in the Mountain West.  UConn is one of the hottest teams in the country but there has to be concern over their ability to come back mentally and physically from the 5-games-in-5-days marathon.  Texas is 4th in Pomeroy's rankings and at times has looked like a national championship favorite, but Rick Barnes' lack of success in the tournament is difficult to ignore.

Legitimate Sleeper: Tennessee.  The Vols have shown that on any given day they can play with anyone in the country, and now they should have had time to get their focus away from all the off-court issues.  With Scotty Hobson and Tobias Harris on the wing and Brian Williams in the middle, this is a really talented team with a bunch of good wins (and terrible losses) on the resume.  I also love Texas in this bracket as a Final Four sleeper.

Deeper Sleeper: Oakland.  Oakland has size up front, which is both a rarity and a huge advantage as a mid-major.  They also know how to beat good teams, having already taken out Tennessee this season.  A first-round matchup with Texas threatens to derail my Longhorns Final Four pick if Classic Rick Barnes is on display.

Oltz's picks: Sweet 16 of Tennessee, Texas, UConn, San Diego State.  Love the Vols to get up for the Duke game IF they can get by Michigan.  Texas over UConn in the regional final.  I don't love the Huskies but I just don't see the fatigue being an issue after the first weekend, and I like their matchups in that first weekend.

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