Wednesday, March 16, 2011

NCAAT: Southeast Region

As the greatest four days in sports are set to begin tomorrow, yours truly is breaking down the 4 regions.  First up is the Southeast Region.

The Top Four: Immediately after the bracket was released, all of the talking heads dubbed this as the easiest bracket.  Now, a few days later, it's hard to deny that.  Pittsburgh has been one of the most consistently good teams all season, but they've never generated much buzz and they've stumbled just a little bit down the stretch, including the loss to UConn in the Big East tournament.  They're also, contrary to the image you get of Pitt basketball, the worst #1 seed defensively according to Pomeroy's efficiency rankings, by a large margin (20th nationally).  Florida is another solid-but-not-spectacular team with several suspect losses and few marquee wins.  BYU has the Jimmer but giant question marks about how they've played since losing Davies.  And Wisconsin has beaten Ohio State but they are terrible defensively (63rd overall in Pomeroy's efficiency rankings) and they're ripe for an upset against 30-win Belmont in the 1st round.

Legitimate Sleeper: Michigan State.  Tom Izzo's tournament success is plenty well-documented, and there's no denying that the Spartans are talented.  They're also experienced, having gone to the Final Four each of the past two seasons.  Add to that the wide-open half of the bracket they drew with Florida and BYU as the 2 and 3 seeds, and a run to the Elite 8 is pretty easy to imagine.

Deeper Sleeper: Utah State.  The Aggies are a ridiculous 30-3 and boast the nation's #7 defense by adjusted efficiency numbers.  They know how to win and you can bet they'll be motivated after getting just a 12 seed despite their gaudy record.  Kansas State, their first round opponent, has been inconsistent all season and relies very heavily on one player, Jacob Pullen.  I picked Utah State through to the Sweet 16 in my bracket.

Oltz's picks: Sweet 16 of Pittsburgh, Utah State, BYU (almost put Gonzaga through here, but held off), and Florida (just too much poor play from Sparty to pull the trigger).  Pittsburgh over BYU in the regional final.  I love the Panthers and think they have a great chance to take advantage of a weak bracket to get to their first Final Four under Jamie Dixon.

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