Previewing the ACC Tournament

The ACC Tournament isn't what it used to be.  Roy Williams is often quoted for saying this or for calling it a "cocktail party" or whatever else the media can manufacture to get a story leading up to this event.  But he's right, you know.  There's a lot of nostalgia associated with this tournament, as the first postseason tourney of any kind.  The stories of the legendary NC State/Maryland/UNC battles from the 70's are what makes this tournament so historically special.  But, let's face it, at this point it's mostly historical.  Even in the 90's, as a kid growing up in Raleigh, I remember loving quarterfinal Friday, when each of the Big Four was in action and we all wore our school colors and the cool teachers wheeled in the old school TV into the room to watch the noon game.

But this tournament isn't that special anymore.  It's still fun, no doubt, and it's still the final chance for bragging rights against local rivals.  But with ACC expansion leading to the awkward 4-game "opening night," quarterfinal Friday has lost some of its luster, with four teams already eliminated by that time.  It just isn't much fun to wear your Wake shirt to school if they've already lost.  Add to that the incredible popularity of the NCAA Tournament, and nobody remembers who wins this thing anymore.  They just don't.  It matters who wins the ACC regular season (a little), and it matters how you do in the NCAAT (a lot).  That's it.

That said, it's still a great chance to watch basketball for 3 days straight and it's still a great appetizer to the NCAAs which begin next week.  So without further delay to bash the thing, let's get to my picks:

Awkward Opening Round:
UVa over Miami
BC over Wake Forest
NC State over Maryland
Georgia Tech over Virginia Tech

Why: I just like Tony Bennett a lot and not just because he shares his name with a lounge singer.  His Cavs have not quit all season and quietly finished 7-9 and 8th in the ACC despite a talent void left by Dave Leitao and losing their best player to injury in December.  A lot of people are looking at Maryland as a potential dark horse, but watching them play last week it just looks to me like they've quit.  Sure, they should have motivation now with a NCAA bid maybe on the table, but it's just hard to turn that switch back on.  As for the last game, I really see Georgia Tech giving the Hokies a great game in this one, and I went with the upset because I just have a feeling that Greenberg is destined to be whining on Selection Sunday again.  More of a hunch than a legitimate pick.

Quarterfinals:
UNC over UVa
BC over Clemson
Duke over NC State
FSU over Georgia Tech

Why: UVa gave the Heels a game back in January, but this is a VERY different UNC team now.  I really like the job Brad Brownell has done, and the BC-Clemson game is really a 50-50 toss-up.  I went with the Eagles because I like their talent better, especially Reggie Jackson.  NC State finally ends Sidney Lowe's Reign of Terror.  Georgia Tech is good enough to beat Seth Greenberg but not a legitimate team.

Semifinals:
UNC over BC
Duke over FSU

Why: Duke and UNC have not met in the ACC Tournament since 2003, despite the fact that they've won every one combined since then except for 2004 (Maryland).  I see it happening this year, because these two teams are just so much better than the rest of the league.  If Chris Singleton plays and plays well, I can definitely see the 'Noles pulling the upset because of their length and athleticism on defense and ability to bother shooters, but I just don't see Singleton being effective this close to breaking his foot.  Likewise, BC definitely CAN beat UNC if Reggie Jackson goes off but I think the Heels are just better and would beat them on a neutral court 70% of the time.

Finals:
UNC over Duke

Why: I love the talking point that Roy doesn't care about this tournament.  First of all, the only time his UNC team has really failed expectations were in 2005 and 2009 when they failed to reach the finals as a 1 seed.  But in '09 they were playing without their starting PG and ACC POY Ty Lawson.  They've also won the thing twice since Roy has been there.  Second of all, the thought that somehow Roy doesn't coach as well or doesn't try for ANY game that his team plays is ridiculous.  The mark of a true professional as a coach is someone who prepares at the same high level for each game.  You can bet Roy does that.

Now that's off the table.  Duke and UNC are very close and this is probably a 50-50 game on a neutral floor.  But it's hard for me to get that wire-to-wire, dominant UNC victory I just watched last weekend out of my head.  I think that Duke has a difficult matchup with this UNC team, as the Heels' frontline is so good defensively that it makes the Devils even more reliant on the 3-pointer.  Add to that the fact that Harrison Barnes has purchased significant real estate inside Kyle Singler's head, and I like Heels by a hair in this one.