I know that this game already gets enough media hype as it is, and it certainly gets enough hype among UNC and Duke fans as well. But this particular version of the rivarly has a little extra behind it, just as last year's matchup in Cameron did. And we all know how that went.
I've always thought one of the most amazing parts of the Duke-Carolina rivalry was the constant swing of the pendulum throughout the history of the rivalry. The Blue Devils and Tar Heels have consistently used each other almost as motivation throughout the last 30 years or so, feeding off the other's success to get back to the same level. Twice in the past 20 years UNC and Duke have won national championships after the other (the Heels in '93 and Devils last season) and each time marked a clear turning point in the rivarly. The rivalry has gone through ebbs and flows, with several distinct periods where one side dominated. UNC had the upper hand throughout Dean Smith's last years, including of course most memorably the Year that K Expunged From All Humanity (1995), only to see Duke take the early 2000's. Then Marvin Williams gave the Heels the beginning in another fine stretch punctuated by Tyler Hansbrough and his inability to lose at Cameron Indoor. And then of course last year Duke laid a 30 point beatdown to close the season and clearly swing the pendulum back the other way. Duke is dominating the rivalry right now, and you can bet that every person in baby blue tomorrow knows that. And hates it.
That's why tomorrow night's game is as big a regular season game as UNC has played since that Marvin Williams putback in 2005. Following last year's debacle, Carolina has somewhat slowly worked its way back into the national conversation, but it would take a season split with Duke to prove to the country as well as 15-501 that the Heels have put 2009-10 clearly behind them. That this game is also for an ACC regular season championship in a year when Duke was awarded that trophy in late November only further underscores the point above. Just one month ago Carolina looked like they could make that statement a little early as they went up by 16 on the road against top-ranked Duke. Although they wound up losing, the national media and UNC fans alike sang a similar chorus in the days afterward: "just wait til UNC gets them in Chapel Hill." Now is that chance.
As for what might actually happen tomorrow, I really don't know. I always love preview posts where analysts give "keys to the game" or whatever. Don't turn the ball over, make 3 points shots, work the paint, run the football, etc. So I will shy away from giving you the same kind of tired analysis. Going into the first meeting, I really felt Carolina was going to win because they came in with incredible momentum having played 4 of the best halves of basketball they've played all season (and about to play a 5th). And for 20 minutes I looked quite intelligent for that pick. This time around, I just don't feel that same way. I think the Heels' confidence has waned maybe a little bit as their offense has stagnated. At the same time, there is something to be said for a young team learning to get tough wins, and there is NO doubt that UNC has learned that skill.
I do know that the first time around I underestimated the effect that Cameron had on the outcome of the game, probably because (except obviously last year) UNC has had such great success there recently, and that's what I remember. This time, I will not make the same mistake, especially since Duke is 2-3 on the road against the RPI top 100 and has lost its 3 toughest road games of the season. Also, I have been saying from the beginning of the season that UNC would surprise everyone by splitting the season series with Duke. I'll stick with that pick here.
UNC 81, Duke 75.
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